The FullCount: Rumors, Lotteries, and WAR - Gary Armida's Blog

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Gary Armida's Blog

The FullCount: Rumors, Lotteries, and WAR Stuck

Posted on July 20, 2012 at 09:25 AM.

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In case you missed it, the trade deadline is just a mere 10 days away. If you are reading this, I know you already knew that. How can anyone miss it with all of the rumors floating around? There was the rumored blockbuster of Hanley Ramirez and Heath Bell to the Red Sox for Carl Crawford; Cole Hamels is being traded and then is intensely negotiating with the Phillies to stay. The Rays are definitely going to part with James Shields. While the rumors are make for good twitter fodder, they are simply rumors with no real base in truth. We get headlines that the Angels and seven other teams sent scouts to watch Cole Hamels. We get headlines that Alfonso Soriano�s name was brought up in a Rays� internal meeting.

Reporters have jobs to do. They get paid to publish things. They get more recognition when they are ahead of everyone else. Social media is making that job much more difficult. There is nothing wrong with getting a bit of information about a team discussing a certain player and publishing that bit. But, the reality is that all teams discuss every single player that may or may not be available. It is standard operating procedure for every club. All teams send scouts to games. It is standard. Rumors are fun, but they are little more than tabloid reading. Until a trade is announced, most of it is just pure guesswork and pure entertainment value.

Now on to the action that is actually happening...

Pitch One: The Competitive Balance Lottery
On Wednesday, Major League Baseball held its first ever Competitive Balance Lottery. As part of the many changes of the new collective bargaining agreement, Major League Baseball pooled the teams in the 10 smallest markets and the 10 teams with the lowest payrolls. Teams such as the Rays, Royals, Pirates, Brewers, and A�s are no surprise. Even teams like the Reds and Padres aren�t all that surprising. But, the Diamondbacks, Cardinals, and Tigers were also participants in this draft. Round one of the draft was a lottery for the bottom revenue and bottom payroll teams. Round two was for the teams that didn�t win a pick in the first round plus the Tigers who didn�t qualify for the first round but did receive revenue sharing money.

The Royals, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, and Marlins will receive picks (in that order) after the first round of next June�s draft. The Padres, Indians, Rockies, A�s, Brewers, and Tigers will receive picks after the second round. The other intriguing aspect to this is that these picks can be traded as long as they are dealt before the season is over.

The idea of giving small market teams a chance to get extra picks is good. The execution is most definitely poor. It is poor because of the restrictions that are now placed on teams in the draft. With hard slotting restrictions, teams such as the Rays, A�s, Royals, and Pirates can no longer invest more money into signing picks. Small revenue teams must build through the draft and then have cost controlled elite level talent. Now, the advantage they once had is taken away in that teams no longer get the same compensation of losing type-A and type-B free agents. Teams like the Rays can no longer stockpile early round draft picks. The lottery is meant as compensation, but notice that the Rays didn�t win any picks. Their business model was essentially extinguished by Major League Baseball�s attempt to spread the wealth. The concept is correct, but the execution could not be more wrong.

Pitch Two: The Red Sox are coming
Left for dead just a week ago, the Red Sox have now won three in a row and seven of their last 10 games. With a dramatic walk off win against the White Sox last night, the Red Sox are just one game behind in the Wild Card race. While they are still 10 games behind the Yankees for the division lead, the Red Sox have a look of a team that is finding its identity. Bobby Valentine may have ruffled some feathers, but his knack for extracting the best from his team is showing. They survived a bevy of injuries in a tough division. They�ve survived slow starts, awkward moments, and poor performances. Now, they are almost healthy--David Ortiz is on the disabled list with Achilles problems--and starting to take shape.

Adrian Gonzalez is beginning to hit. Dustin Pedroia, Carl Crawford, and Jacoby Ellsbury all returned from the disabled list. Not many teams are able to essentially acquire three All-Star players all at once. Cody Ross, the hero of last night�s walk off and the producer of 3 home runs and 9 RBI in his last two games, is becoming that blue collar leader that may have been missing in Boston. Clay Buchholz may still have an ERA over 5, but he has been pitching well, even before he was on the disabled list. Josh Beckett and Jon Lester aren�t pitching well, but the Red Sox have gotten good performances from Felix Doubront, Franklin Morales, and from most of the bullpen. Morales has since moved back to the bullpen, which strengthens an already strong group.

Although team President Larry Lucchino has stated that the Red Sox will explore making bold moves, they simply don�t have to do that. The Red Sox already lead the American League in runs scored. Once David Ortiz returns, they will finally have their lineup intact. They do need a couple of arms. Aaron Cook has been a great story, but with just two strikeouts in 30 innings, there are legitimate concerns about whether or not he can sustain his performance. With their resources, the Red Sox could add an impact pitcher, hope for better performances from their top two starters, and become a real factor in the playoff race. Their talent says top five in the League. Their performance is starting to catch up to that potential.

Pitch Three: Rays Should Deal Shields
The Tampa Bay Rays are 48-45 and very much in the Wild Card race. Because of their rotation, the Rays will remain in the pennant race despite having one of the least productive offenses in all of Baseball. It may seem like a poor idea to trade their Opening Day starter, but if the Rays are to be legitimate World Series contenders, they need more offense. The quickest way to get that offense is to deal James Shields.

There is no doubt that James Shields has been one the main reasons why the Rays have been relevant over the past four years. But, the 30 year old is in the middle of the worst season of his career as he is 8-6 with a 4.44 ERA in 123.2 innings. He�s allowed 10.6 H/9, 1.2 HR/9, 2.7 BB/9, and has struck out 8.3 batters per nine innings. Looking more frustrated with his run support, Shields still has enough value to help the Rays add a quality bat or two. Under control with team options until 2014, Shields is one of the few pitchers who could be acquired and be guaranteed to stay with his new team for longer than a few months. The Rays also have a deep pitching base in their rotation so they would be able to fill the void with another young pitcher.

Dealing Shields is not dependent upon whether or not the Rays believe they are in contention. It is a type of move that they have become known for. It is a move that could quickly improve their offense and given their pitching depth, not have too much of an impact on the staff. It is a move that should be done.

Pitch Four: Robert Creamer
Many may not have heard of Robert Creamer. Mr. Creamer passed away on Wednesday at the age of 90. Robert Creamer was one of the original writers for Sports Illustrated. He wrote the definitive biography of Babe Ruth, but I mention him here for his impact on the journalism industry. Being one of the first writers for Sports Illustrated, Mr. Creamer wasn�t permitted to sit in the press box during his first season covering the Yankees. Major League Baseball wouldn�t allow reporters from the new magazine to sit with the media because it was so new. Instead, Mr. Creamer bought a ticket, watched the game, and wrote his stories.

Major League Baseball is very slow to change. They were slow then with �new media� and they are slow now with today�s version of �new media�. Mr. Creamer paid his dues, didn�t complain, and went on to have a legendary career as a writer and then editor of SI. He was said to be one of the best and classiest men in the industry. He was a pioneer for the magazine and is an inspiration for all writers and for writers in new media. There is much to be learned from how Mr. Creamer conducted himself during his tremendous career.

Best wishes to his family and a sincere thank you.

Pitch Five: WAR, what is it good for?
In Baseball, WAR is actually useful. For those unfamiliar, WAR stands for wins above replacement, meaning how valuable a player when compared to a replacement (baseline) level player. It is a quick way to see the overall value of a player. It isn�t, however, the end all, be all. Many online writing outlets will state a player�s WAR as if it means everything, but the best sabermetrics people will tell you that WAR is just part of the puzzle. No one stat is all encompassing.

Here is the top 10 players according to WAR
1. David Wright 5.7
2. Mike Trout 5.5
3. Andrew McCutchen 5.1
4. Robinson Cano 4.8
5. Justin Verlander 4.8
6. Chris Sale 4.6
7. Joey Votto 4.5
8. Jordan Zimmermann 4.5
9. Carlos Ruiz 4.3
10. Matt Harrison 3.9